Nervous About Chris

I know that us in weather are picked on throughout the year when our forecast isn't quite as accurate as we would want it to be. Yesterday I went with a pretty high rain chance, with afternoon thunderstorms expected. Well only a couple of storms popped up, and the heat was brutal. I explain to people that an 8 day forecast is fairly accurate for days 1 and 2, but the certainty of the forecast diminishes beyond day 3, 4, and 5, and by day 8 it's just a guess based on trends. I also tell people that more than likely they aren't going to remember what I said today when next Thursday rolls around. This isn't so true when it comes to forecasting hurricanes. People want the 6 month forecast! Well now that Chris is a strong tropical storm, and forecast to become a hurricane, people are starting to talk, and the armchair meteorologists are surfacing. Any forecast that takes a tropical storm or hurricane near Key West, Florida gets us here in Louisiana very weary. In 2005 three hurricanes, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma all passed just to the west of Key West. This was where the hurricanes went from Category 1 to Category 4 or 5 in less than 24 hours. We watch a number of computer models, and the track of a hurricane is fairly easy to forecast, it's the intensity forecast that we don't have a good handle on right now. The models are on the pic above. Click on the pic for updated computer model info. After the devastation to our state last year, everyone is on edge this year. So back to the eight day forecast. Will Tropical Storm or Hurricane Chris visit south Louisiana???? We'll wait and see. I've got 3 cars with full tanks right now, don't want to get caught on empty like I did with Rita last year.